AI agents picking vendors, not humans: why OpenAI bounced back and Medallia collapsed
## The Shift: Agents Pick the Tools Now OpenAI missed Q4 numbers. Anthropic just pulled $45 billion from Google and Amazon. Thoma Bravo handed Medallia to creditors, wiping out $5.1 billion in equity from their 2021 acquisition. The pattern underneath: AI agents now choose which vendors get budget. Not sales leaders. Not procurement. Agents. Jason Lemkin's AI VP of Marketing at SaaStr prefers OpenAI's API over Claude. So that is where the spend goes. "Just like you had to back your team of humans in 2024, today I have to back my team of agents," Lemkin said on 20VC. "If they pick OpenAI, I have to be on the team." This rewrites the vendor landscape faster than most sales orgs realise. ## Three Buckets for B2B Tools Rory O'Driscoll laid out where every sales tool now sits: **Bucket 1: Eroding terminal value.** Tools agents do not use. Medallia landed here. Customer feedback platforms lose relevance when agents handle most customer interactions. **Bucket 2: System of record.** Workday, parts of Salesforce. Companies keep them but no agentic activity happens on top. Fair valuation, no premium. **Bucket 3: Agent-leveraged.** ServiceNow claims this. Twilio and Cloudflare qualify because agents actually call their APIs. This is the only bucket that gets growth multiples. Most B2B software is being repriced from Bucket 3 (where the market gave credit until 2025) into Bucket 2. Some slides to Bucket 1. ## What This Means for Sales Teams Canva will IPO successfully. Agents still will not use it. "An AI agent is not going to move assets around," Lemkin noted. "It is just going to create the assets." Same logic applies to Jira, Confluence, most project management tools. The SaaS premium is dead. Good companies without AI-first positioning trade at fair value, not 30x revenue. If you are evaluating a job offer at a growth-stage SaaS company, ask: do AI agents use this product? If the answer is no, expect the valuation, and likely your equity, to compress. ## The Comp Angle Thoma Bravo's Medallia collapse signals risk across PE-backed seat-based SaaS. If you are selling for a company in Bucket 1 or sliding into it, watch for quota relief disappearing, territory compression, and comp plan changes as leadership realises the revenue model is breaking. Meanwhile, companies in Bucket 3 are hiring. OpenAI is projected to hit $20 billion ARR this year despite the Q4 miss. Anthropic hit $6 billion revenue in February alone, with projections to reach $70 billion ARR by 2028. If you are an enterprise AE evaluating offers, the question is not just OTE. It is: will agents want to buy this in 18 months? Because if they do not, your patch is shrinking no matter what the comp plan says. ## What Gets Bought API-first tools agents can call. Data infrastructure agents need. ServiceNow's agentic capabilities if they ship. Not seat-based tools designed for human collaboration. Sales orgs still matter. Someone has to close the enterprise deals. But if the agents are not choosing your product in their workflows, the TAM is compressing regardless of how good your team is. The 2021 SaaS playbook is over. Agents pick the stack now.