Jason Lemkin dropped numbers this week that explain why your quota feels impossible: the market is growing fast, but most of that growth is going to AI-native companies, not traditional SaaS.
Gartner forecasts global IT spending at $6.08 trillion in 2026, up 9.8%. Software alone grows 15.2%. Redpoint data shows AI spending specifically at $2.52 trillion, up 44% year over year. That is four times the overall IT growth rate.
Here is the problem for sales teams: CIOs are setting aside 9% of total IT budget just to cover price increases on existing software. Overall budget growth is 1.8%. The math does not work unless they cut tools that are not delivering ROI.
Valuation gap shows who is winning: Private AI companies are trading at 61x ARR. Public SaaS companies sit at 4x ARR. That 15x gap tells you what the market thinks about your future pipeline.
ICONIQ surveyed 150+ B2B software GTM leaders in January. The data shows high-growth companies generate 62% of new logo pipeline from sales, not upsells. Median NRR for public B2B companies is 108-110%, top quartile hits 123%+. If your NRR is below 100%, you have a retention problem that kills growth.
What this means for quota: If your company is not winning the AI race in your category, you are selling against the tide. Buyers are replacing vendors without credible AI products right now. Average contract lengths are declining because buyers know categories get disrupted faster than multi-year deals.
Top-quartile AI-native companies hit 360% new logo velocity year over year versus 71% for non-AI peers. AI-native companies reach $100M ARR in 1-2 years versus the historical 5+ year benchmark.
Lemkin's example: Figma stock down 31% in a month. Won the pre-AI design wars, but is it winning the agentic wars? So far, no.
For AEs and SDRs: ask your CRO what percentage of R&D goes to AI. ICONIQ data shows companies growing 100%+ allocate 57% of R&D to AI versus 38% for average-growth peers. That gap compounds every quarter. If your product team is not building the winning AI agent in your space, your quota gets harder while someone else's gets easier.
Bottom line: The market is flush with budget. Just not for you if you are not capturing AI spend. Getting more profitable buys time, not growth. CROs know this, which is why they are rebuilding teams around AI-native plays and cutting headcount where the product story does not land.